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Memorial Day weekend travel forecast: What you need to know

1:51
Air traffic controller woes ahead of holiday travel
Scott Olson/Getty Images
ByAyesha Ali and Emily Shapiro
May 24, 2025, 1:02 AM

A record number of Americans are gearing up to head to the airport or hit the highway for the first long weekend of the summer.

AAA forecasts more than 45 million people will travel at least 50 miles from home between Thursday, May 22, and Monday, May 26, which would break the Memorial Day weekend travel record set in 2005.

Here’s what you need to know:

Road travel

AAA forecasts 39.4 million people will travel by car over the long weekend.

If you’re heading out on Friday, the best time to drive is before 11 a.m., according to analytics company INRIX.

On Monday, INRIX recommends heading home before 2 p.m. The worst time on the road on Monday will be between 4 p.m. and 7 p.m., INRIX said.

Air travel

AAA anticipates 3.61 million people will travel by plane -- a nearly 2% jump from last year.

The Federal Aviation Administration said it expects record travel, with flights peaking on Thursday, May 22, at nearly 54,000. The second-busiest day will be Friday with over 51,000 flights.

The Transportation Security Administration says it anticipates screening some 18 million passengers and crew between May 22 and May 28.

U.S. flights are 2% more expensive this year than they were in 2024, with the average round-trip ticket costing $850, according to AAA.

American Airlines said it's expecting the highest number of passengers on Thursday, May 22, and Friday, May 23, with 6,741 departures on each of those days.

United is expecting 3.8 million people to fly between May 22 and 28, an increase of 300,000 from last year, according to the airline. Friday is expected to be the busiest day for United, with 550,000 passengers expected.

Passengers go through a security checkpoint at O'Hare International Airport on May 07, 2025 in Chicago, Illinois.
Scott Olson/Getty Images

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The top domestic destinations are Orlando, Florida; Seattle; New York City; Las Vegas; Miami; and San Francisco, according to AAA. The top international cities are Rome; Vancouver, Canada; Paris; and London.

The most expensive destination is Hawaii, according to Expedia. Some cities with the most affordable hotels are Kissimmee, Florida; Jacksonville, Florida; Louisville, Kentucky; Albuquerque, New Mexico; Houston; Minneapolis; and Fort Worth, Texas, Expedia said.

When it comes to car rentals, Hertz said the biggest demand, based on bookings during the holiday weekend, is for small SUVs, midsize sedans and midsize SUVs. Cities seeing the highest demand for rental cars include Orlando, San Francisco, Las Vegas, Miami and Seattle, according to Hertz.

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MORE: Real ID goes into effect: Here are the requirements

This marks the first holiday since the REAL ID requirement for domestic flights went into effect on May 7. Department of Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem told a congressional panel on May 6 that travelers who haven't yet obtained a REAL ID will still be able to fly, but will be subject to an additional screening process.

TSA said since the implementation of the REAL ID requirements, 93% of passengers have been presenting either a REAL ID or another compliant document at security checkpoints.

Memorial Day weekend also comes on the heels of ongoing delays at New Jersey's Newark Liberty International Airport due to multiple technical problems, runway construction and staffing shortages.

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