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Senior editor and senior elections analyst

Nathaniel Rakich

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Nathaniel's Latest Work

PHOTO: This year's Oscars are tough to predict. — ABC News, Adobe

Who will win at the 2025 Oscars?

PHOTO: Welcome to Pollapalooza, 538's roundup of the latest polls. — Andrew Harnik/Getty, Chip Somodevilla/Getty, Adobe

What Americans think of Trump's support for Israel

PHOTO: Welcome to 538's latest politics chat.

What do Americans think about Trump's tariffs?

The Trump administration has pushed to increase deportations — ABC News, Jason Redmond/AFP, Getty

Trump is deporting more immigrants — but the data is incomplete

PHOTO: President Donald Trump speaks as he hosts Republican Senators for a dinner at Mar-a-Lago in Palm Beach, Fla., Feb. 7, 2025. — Kevin Lamarque/Reuters

The GOP is Trump's party now

PHOTO: Welcome to 538's latest politics chat.

Trump is giving Elon Musk an unprecedented amount of power

PHOTO: U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) agents conduct an arrest as part of President Donald Trump's wide-ranging immigration crackdown in Chicago, Illinois, January 26, 2025 in a still image from video. — Immigration and Customs Enforcement via Reuters

Do Americans support Trump's mass deportations?

PHOTO: Welcome to Pollapalooza, 538's roundup of the latest polls. — ABC News Photo Illustration, Anna Moneymaker/Getty Images

What do Americans think of Trump's executive actions?

PHOTO: President Donald Trump holds up an executive order commuting sentences for people convicted of Jan. 6 offenses in the Oval Office of the White House, Jan. 20, 2025, in Washington. — Evan Vucci/AP

No, Trump can't cancel the 2028 election. But he could still weaken democracy.

PHOTO: A utilities worker views damage from the Palisades Fire, in the Pacific Palisades neighborhood of Los Angeles, on Jan. 12, 2025. — David Ryder/Reuters

The Los Angeles wildfires are already among the worst ever

Larry Hogan, Jon Tester and Amy Klobuchar were some of the strongest candidates for Congress in 2024. — ABC News Photo Illustration, Kevin Dietsch, Andrew Harnik/Getty Images

Who were the strongest Senate and House candidates of 2024?

538’s Nathaniel Rakich makes a lot of predictions — here are the ones in 2024 that didn’t quite pan out the way he thought. — ABC News Photo Illustration, Scott Eisen/Kevin Dietsch/Justin Sullivan/Getty Images, Timothy A. Clary/Pool Photo via AP, File, REUTERS/Nathan Howard

What I got wrong in 2024

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